Phases of Research Example #3

Phases of Research: Example #3
Patterns of Commercial Robberies
in the Netherlands

Idea-Generating Phase:

Crime data indicate that crimes are unevenly distributed by day, week, season, and even time of day. For example, July and August seem to be the times for most homicides. Is there any discernible pattern to this uneven distribution, and if so, can we explain the reasons for the pattern?

Problem-Definition Phase:

There are many reasons for the commission of crimes, including the motivation of the culprits. Other variables, however, such as time of day and weather, may help to determine the pattern of when crimes occur. By analyzing crimes according to these time variables, the researchers hope to identify possible explanations for the frequency of crimes occurring at those times. The crimes focused on in this study are commercial robberies carried out in the Netherlands during the five years, 1988-1993. Commercial robberies involve threats to seize money or other valuable property from a commercial enterprise, such as a bank or a store.

Procedures-Design Phase:

The researchers planned to examine police records for all commercial robberies in the five-year period and record data for the variables to be studied. That is, for each commercial robbery they would record the time of day, day of the week, time of year (month and season) it occurred, what was the weather at the time, and what was the value of the property seized?

The data will be statistically analyzed for those variables (i.e., to determine the most common times and weather conditions for the robberies and how much was stolen). It is expected that the patterns found will suggest reasons for the relative frequencies of the crimes at these various times.

Observation Phase:

This study falls into the correlational level of research as discussed in Chapter 2. Archival records are used as the source of data (i.e., the police records are examined and the appropriate data are extracted and organized into data sets).

Data Analysis Phase:

Statistical analyses were carried out to determine the relative frequencies of commercial robberies for each variable (time of day, etc.). Then the resulting patterns was examined and rational (theoretical) analyses were carried out to suggest reasons for the patterns that were found.

Interpretation Phase:

As expected, robbery frequencies vary according to the variables studied. For example, Friday is the most popular commercial robbery day. The stores are closed in the Netherlands on Sunday and much of Saturday, so Friday is the biggest business day of the week, with the most cash available. It may be the amount of available cash rather than the actual day that is important.

The peak of robberies is in the wintertime. The authors suggest that the significantly longer hours of darkness in winter may help robbers in their escape plans. The weather variations and time of day seem to have no effects at all. These data should alert business people and the police that extra vigilance and security at the peak times might reduce these crimes.

Communication Phase:

The study was reported in the journal article:

VanKoppen, P. J., & Jansen, R. W. J.,(1999). Variations in time and number of commercial robberies. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 36, 1, 7-29.